Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Evergreen- quarter result review for Quarter Ended 30th September 2017

Evergreen (5101)
股价: RM0.76
市值:RM643 million

成立于1972年的长青纤维板,是家从事合成板制造业务的公司,目前也是东盟最大的中密度纤维板(MDF)供应商,在大马、印尼和泰国都有生产基地,总产能达130万立方公尺,霸占国内MDF市场的60%份额。


Evergreen 的股价从年头到今天跌了大概 22 %

今天 11月14日 2017年第三季报告出来了,大家一起来研究看看



Year on year 比较

第三季度的 营业额增长了大约7%但是净利却逐年下滑了10%。

此季度营业额的贡献主要来自本地的业务,营业额增长25.4%, 税前盈利则成长大约120%。由于(1)昔加末的工厂更有效的提高产量和控制成本,(2)外汇变动有利于公司,再加上公司(3)专注于生产高赚幅的产品,所以才大大的提高大马的业务成绩。至于泰国的厂房由于有一条生产线停止了,又需要钱来维修和升级,再加上橡胶木和GLUE的价钱上涨,营业额和税前盈利的大幅下跌,把整体成绩拉低了。





整体来看,橡胶木和glue的价格上涨对公司的影响确实是蛮大的。Gross Profit Margin (毛利率)也由2016年的28% 跌到24%从而影响了整体的表现。


虽然公司的现金下跌,net debt to equity ratio 大约是8.2%左右,相当的低。





现金流方面由于公司运行成本(working capital)方面占据了蛮大的资金,所以相比去年则滑落了不少,至于 Free Cash Flow就更加不用说了。



公司对未来的展望是长远来说由于美国和欧洲的经济还算不错,生意还是会保持不错的。至于原料价格还是会被橡胶木的供应问题影响,尤其是当季风季节来临的时候。


笔者点评

Evergreen 2017 年的全年净利如果要超过 2016 的确实会有很大的难度,也很是被动的被橡胶木短缺的问题困扰着。目前最好是昔加末的厂房继续扩大产能,并持续高赚副产品的销售数量来对冲原料上涨的问题。至于此季度的整体表现我个人还觉得是过得去的。对于持票已久的投资者来说,或许这个季度的表现也还真的是柳暗花明又一村了。





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谢谢大家


Monday, 13 November 2017

ORNA PAPER Quarter result review FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEP 2017

Orna Paper Bhd (5065)
Share price 1.61
Market Cap: RM 121 million


Orna paper is involved in paper packaging industry and their major business is manufacturing of corrugated board and carton and paper stationery products.





Orna Paper share price had gone up  71% since Jan 2017.  Today, 13 November 2017, the third quarter result is out. Let's review it



Year On year Comparison
Single quarter
Revenue went up 31% for the current quarter due to 1)higher sales volume, 2)higher average sales price. Net profit attributable to shareholder increased at slower pace of 7.5% due to higher raw material cost as well as high taxes incurred in this quarter. The sales volume and average selling price for corrugated cartons and boards has increased by 15.63% and 13.74% respectively compared to the corresponding quarter

Year to date
Revenue increased 20% while profit increased 65%. This 9 month net profit has surpassed last year full year net profit of around 7.7 million.
















The company is currently sitting on Net Debt to Equity ratio of 34.5%.
Besides that, inventory increased substantially in this quarter, probably the company foresee that the raw materials price could be increasing further, or they might have higher sales order coming in as the demand for paper packaging is robust now.










Dragged down by increasing of working capital, the operating cash flow for this quarter is in negative territory, this certainly not a good sign for company if persist for a long period especially when they need to borrow more money to fund the business operation.






As a midstream player, despite the increase of raw materials cost, Orna ability to pass through the cost to its customers is one of the core reason for such an outstanding performance. Not only that, the demand of paper packaging is indeed in an increasing trend.








Valuation:

Trailing 12 months PE : 9.7


Conclusion:

Overall this quarter result is quite satisfactory and the business will continue to grow despite the increased of raw materials price. Next quarter result should be doing well too as Malaysia e-commerce sales on 11 November 2017 is impressive.




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Tuesday, 11 March 2014

YOCB- Is it normal or something fishy to you?

Yoong Onn Corporation Berhad(Yocb) has released its quarter result ended 31st December 2013. The revenue is quite flattish but  profit before tax was up around 29% compare to last year corresponding quarter. If we compare to immediate preceding quarter, revenue was up 9% and profit before tax was up 37.9%, quite a strong result achieved due to the festive season. Despite the good result, the inventories and receivables in the balance sheet are increasing. If you read my previous post on YOCB, this is the problem that i am worry about. 


As you can see



Quarter result ended 30th September 2013


Quarter result ended 31st December 2013
fundamental analysis for amateur



Since FY2009 until now, the inventories and receivable are growing non-stop.




I have done some calculations to analyse the company's working capital efficiency from FY 2010 to FY 2013.


On inventories
fundamental analysis for amateur







In FY2013, it takes the company roughly 196 days, or 6.5 months in order to clear off all the inventories(roughly 157 days in FY2010) . As you can see, the inventory turnover ratio has became lower and lower year on year. If you take a look on YOCB 2013 annual report, you will find out that most of the inventory held are finished products. I deemed this a bad signal as products will deteriorate. When the inventories piled up too much, it takes up more spaces in the warehouses and incur unnecessary storage cost too.




On receivables
fundamental analysis for amateur






As you can see, it takes the company roughly 65 days to collect back the debts. Please be extra careful when the rate of increase in receivable is greater than the sales growth. When a company has its receivable outgrows its revenue, it might signify that a company is trying to boost up its revenue by selling more goods on credit. It is one of the famous financial shenanigans where a company trying to cheat the investors so that investors believe the company business has turnaround. In YOCB case, i believe the company is doing good and with its strong balance sheet and brand name , there is no reason that it will involve in this financial shenanigan.



On Payable
fundamental analysis for amateur






I am not worry on payable side. Shorten of payable period is a good sign where the company ability to pay off the debts increase, however, lengthen of payable days could signify that the company has  better control of their money by delaying their payment while at the same time bring no adverse effect on their credit reputation.




Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)

fundamental analysis for amateur


As you can see, it is a clear uptrend on its cash conversion days. It takes around 229 days for YOCB to convert the inventories to sales and collect back the receivables, from around 171 days in FY 2010. The rate of increasing is surprisingly high for me.



Conclusion

It is understandable that the company is trying to grow the business but still I am very much concern of the non-stop growing of receivables and inventories. I have tried to compare the working capital between YOCB and Padini and  found out that Padini is way more efficient that YOCB's. I believe that is because Padini generated most of its revenue through its own outlet while YOCB is more dependent on consignment sales. YOCB should try to increase their working capital efficiency as inventories and receivables cannot be growing forever. At the time i am writing, the share price went up 7 cents to close at 1.22, or market cap of around 200M (11/03/2014) which is the all time high.




Thursday, 6 March 2014

Latitude Tree Holdings Berhad - Strong recovery of furniture industry?

Before we talk about Latitude Tree Holdings Berhad (LTHB), let's us understand about the furniture industry. In Bursa, we have few listed furniture companies, Lihen, LTHB, Pohuat, Homeritz and etc. As for LTHB, it exported 90% of furnitures to US and hence, the recovery of US housing market play an important role to determine on LTHB performance. There are few things that i think one should know about




1)The new home sales in US surged 9.6% in January, which is the strongest rate since July 2008. The unexpected good result had beaten the estimation of consensus. The supply of homes in relative to demand has dropped from 5.2 months(December) to 4.7 months(January) as the supply of new houses in the market remain unchanged, due to the lack of materials and unskilled workers. The potential hike on mortgage rate in US might dampen the housing market further as the borrowing cost increased.



fundamental analysis for amateur
sources from: ECONODAY


2)Despite the strong recovery of new home sales in January, the pending home sales in US showed only a marginal gain of 0.1%. The data on January has shown some stability on US housing market after the plunge of recent months. In US housing market, existing home sales constitute a higher proportion than new home sales. By looking at the data, it is understand that the housing market in US is still in a recovery stage which the sustainability has yet to know.


fundamental analysis for amateur
sources from: ECONODAY

3)The economy of a country is important to determine the income level of citizens, which will affect the housing market indirectly. In fourth quarter of 2013, US GDP grew in  2.4% annual rate, which is lower than estimation. Consumer spending plays an important part in US economy but the year end retails sales is not as good as assume. Bad weather in US is one of the causes.




4) In year 2013, US furniture import had increased 1,974 Million Dollars, as compare to year 2012. For your information, US is world major furniture import country, and China is his largest trading partner, follow by Vietnam and then Malaysia. Recently, the labor cost on China is going up, and hence it provides Vietnam and Malaysia's furniture manufacturer an opportunities to grow their market share. Despite that, Vietnam and Malaysia furniture industry are known as lacked of skilled workers, and the production cost of both countries are raising due to the implementation of minimum wages.



5) The competition in furniture industry is very intensive, especially from the China side. China is the largest furniture producer and largest furniture exporter in term of value in the world.

fundamental analysis for amateur
sources from http://www.slideshare.net/ClarionGermany/03-csil-alessandratracogna

fundamental analysis for amateur
sources from:http://www.slideshare.net/ClarionGermany/03-csil-alessandratracogna

As you can see from above chart, Vietnam and Malaysia are still a small market in the industry in term of production and exportation.




Conclusion

In my humble opinion, the furniture industry is showing sign of improving follow by the recovery of US housing market, albeit there are still a lot of uncertainties. I think that for those furniture companies which are able to survive throughout the 2008 crisis, they will enjoy a huge pie of cake, if let say US housing market come back strongly. Another issue to take note is, the orders for local furniture companies are increasing, which is a good leading indicator of US housing market recovery? Nevertheless, it is still early to judge.



Next, i will be touching on furniture companies listed in Bursa, and why my pick on LTHB.