Thursday 23 November 2017

Ekovest(8877) - 32nd AGM, 23rd November 2017

board of directors

digitize vote for the 10 resolutions





The AGM started with queries posted by Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group(MSWG) and Ekovest replies. Didn't managed to record down but I believe they will upload the meeting minutes just like how they did on last year AGM.

Questions from the floor : (please note that the order of how's the question being asked or answered during the AGM might not be the same as how I record here)

Question 1) The question is regarding to Islamic medium term notes(IMTM) and why is it issued in lump sum instead of in progressive way so that interest can be saved, the cost of IMTM is about 6% while the return of reinvest into investment funds is 3 to 4%




I believe it is pertaining to this

Answer 1) Duke 1 and 2 have implemented this method in their funding, it is also safer in the sense that the company can secured the funds first and make sure the project can be complete, instead of trying to raise the rest of the fund from time to time. When market is good, every bankers can guarantee you but if market is bad, the cost could be even doubled. We have a team of risk management committee to look out for all the potential risk and cost of debts have been factored into our financial cash flow. The management would like to save some interest too but that will be risky unless Ekovest has parents company like EPF or PNB.



Question 2) Second question is about Duke 2A highway and how is the funding is going to be done with a project that cost more than RM6 billion GDV.




question in regarding to this



Answer 2) The company has finished the design and they have few options when it comes to funding. They are looking for interest rate of around 6% so that the project can be done in cheaper rate. The company wanted to provide value-in-money to the road users and that is why they are success in Duke 1.




Question 3) The question was about the profit guarantee of IRR 12% to EPF for the disposal of 40%Kesturi stake and the listing of DUKE highway



Answer 3) This morning 12.01am Duke 2 has started to collect toll fees, the company will monitor the traffic for couple of months and so far the traffic number are very accurate as per estimation. If the traffic number is good they will try to list the highway earlier and they are confident to achieve the 12% IRR as promised to EPF.





Question 4) One of the shareholder question about the effective tax rate is quite high




The standard corporate tax rate is 24% while the tax incurred by the company is way higher 



Answer 4) The reply from management is despite toll business is generating good cash flow, it is still not making profit  yet in accounting due to amortization, and the expenses is not deductible. Besides that, the higher tax rate is also due to different timing in tax expenses. (I do not quite understand this part maybe someone else can explain better)



Question 5) Why is the other income so much lesser compare to FY16


the income statement is self explanatory
Answer 5) It was due to fair value gain on investment properties of 123 million



Question 6) Why is the admin cost increased so much compare to FY16? (refer to the income statement above)


Answer 6) The one off ESOS expense of 22.6million is one of the reason, however, excluding this one off expense the admin cost still increased around RM 33 million. The management explanation on this matters is due to the company has achieved more than 1 billion revenue at the first time and that is the reason for admin cost increase. Due to my limited knowledge, I am somehow not quite understand and convinced by it.


Question 7)Can the company provides more information in regarding to the provision for liquidated and ascertained damaged (LAD) and when will it be actually realized.



Answer 7) (I don't quite get the answer at the beginning part) based on my understanding, the provision for LAD that comes from the late of completion is because of the enhancement job after completion. The impact is minimal and could be reversed. Such provision is due to accounting treatment.


 Attached together with the result of poll





 
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    Monday 20 November 2017

    Gdex (0078) 1st quarter result review ended 30th September 2017

    Gdex (0078)
    Share price: RM0.63
    Market Cap:RM 3.5 billion


    Gdex 的股价在今年头因为分红股的关系做了调整。 目前股价起了大约50%,今天业绩报告出来了,一起来研究看看!



    Gdex 的主要业务是快递生意并且在马来西亚有很大的市占率!在这份报告里我们可以看到






    Year on year 比较

    这个季度营业额增长了大约18.5%,净利却下滑了2.6%
    营业额增长主要原因是因为快递和物流生意都取得了成长,然而在生意扩展的当儿运行费用也随着增加,导致净利下跌了。



    公司的现金流一路以来都蛮好的。自由现金流(FREE CASH FLOW)也不错。这个季度的Free cash flow 有大约 7.8 million。 
    Free cash flow = Net cash from operating activities - CAPEX (资本开销)



    公司对前景的展望是明朗的。由于电商的发展,会有很多竞争者开始想要打入快递的领域,所以公司认为赚幅会被影响。在大马, POS 和 GDEX 在目前是快递领域上最大的公司,然而有些之前专注在其他物流领域的公司也开始进军快递领域,比如 tnlogistic 和 century。像 nationwide 这个小型且亏损的快递公司目前也积极的收购公司来扩大生意。看来大家对电商发展的潜力是蛮看好的。





    笔者评语

    尽管前景很好,估值却挺高的。目前本益比高达97, 也意味着如果公司净利年年保持不变,需要97年才能回本!目前看来GDEX 还未交出让人信服的成绩单。





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    Thursday 16 November 2017

    GESHEN 业绩点评 澄清 !

    今天我收到一个网友send给我的一个link,是有关于我本人在昨天分享的一篇 GESHEN 的业绩分析报告。在读完某个FB 专页对我的评论后,我觉得我有必要向读者交代清楚。首先内容如下






    问题 1 


    回答

    我并没有在文章里提到 net cash 这个字,如果我有可是我看不到麻烦读者帮帮我找出来。






    问题2 




















    回答

    有看过业绩报告的人都可以明白



    当中提到了公司未来的方向还是会专注在 扩建厂房,增加生产资产,目的是为了可以提高销售来达到更好的经营成本 (ECONOMIES OF SCALE). 当一间公司在扩建时所用得资金,就是资本开销 (capex)


    其实在笔者分析后都会附上业绩报告里剪接出来的重要信息,这样读者可以自己分析到底笔者所写是不是真实。当然我分析的也不是最好的,可能有时还有错误。如果以后有什么不对的评论还需要读者的提点。至于没有必要的回应笔者以后会设当的回避。

    谢谢各位





    Wednesday 15 November 2017

    Geshen (7197) -quarter result review for Quarter Ended 30th September 2017

    Geshen (7197)
    Share Price: Rm2.30
    Market Cap: Rm 180 million

    Geshen 主要业务是制作高密度塑料组件,近年来也频频在通过收购公司来扩展。目前马来西亚的业务为主要




    今年股价起了大概28%,今天11月15日第三季业绩报告出来了,一起来研究看看吧!





    Year on Year 对比

    营业额增长13.2%,净利却猛跌55.6%。

    营业额增长主要是因为去年收购的公司 DOSB 在这个季度贡献出完整3个月的业绩,相比去年同个季度只有两个月的贡献。 当然新顾客和原本的顾客增加的订单也做出了贡献。

    至于净利下跌如此严重最主要还是因为在生产不同产品的同时,把整体生产原料的成本提高。这或许也意味着各产品的赚幅差异明显。我们在这边可以看到营业额成长只有13.2%,但是原料成本却足足增长了大约33%

    公司的主要原料是塑料树脂 (plastic resin)和金属板 (metal sheet)


    公司的债务net debt to equity ratio 大约 50% 左右。

    但是以公司的生意现金还是足以应付。很明显在付了利息后公司还有现金周转。





    公司接下来还是会专注于扩展工厂,增加订单和生产量以达到更好的成本控制以及经营效率(economy of scale)。接下来的资本开销还会增长




    笔者点评

    这个季度被原料成本提高严重的打击净利,而全年的业绩多多少少也是被新购买的公司 DOSB帮助下提升。公司目前在债务提高的压力下虽然减低了资本开销但是业绩还尚未让人满意。至于在订单增加和公司积极扩展的情况来看,或许股东们可以守出个春天来。




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    谢谢大家



    Tuesday 14 November 2017

    Evergreen- quarter result review for Quarter Ended 30th September 2017

    Evergreen (5101)
    股价: RM0.76
    市值:RM643 million

    成立于1972年的长青纤维板,是家从事合成板制造业务的公司,目前也是东盟最大的中密度纤维板(MDF)供应商,在大马、印尼和泰国都有生产基地,总产能达130万立方公尺,霸占国内MDF市场的60%份额。


    Evergreen 的股价从年头到今天跌了大概 22 %

    今天 11月14日 2017年第三季报告出来了,大家一起来研究看看



    Year on year 比较

    第三季度的 营业额增长了大约7%但是净利却逐年下滑了10%。

    此季度营业额的贡献主要来自本地的业务,营业额增长25.4%, 税前盈利则成长大约120%。由于(1)昔加末的工厂更有效的提高产量和控制成本,(2)外汇变动有利于公司,再加上公司(3)专注于生产高赚幅的产品,所以才大大的提高大马的业务成绩。至于泰国的厂房由于有一条生产线停止了,又需要钱来维修和升级,再加上橡胶木和GLUE的价钱上涨,营业额和税前盈利的大幅下跌,把整体成绩拉低了。





    整体来看,橡胶木和glue的价格上涨对公司的影响确实是蛮大的。Gross Profit Margin (毛利率)也由2016年的28% 跌到24%从而影响了整体的表现。


    虽然公司的现金下跌,net debt to equity ratio 大约是8.2%左右,相当的低。





    现金流方面由于公司运行成本(working capital)方面占据了蛮大的资金,所以相比去年则滑落了不少,至于 Free Cash Flow就更加不用说了。



    公司对未来的展望是长远来说由于美国和欧洲的经济还算不错,生意还是会保持不错的。至于原料价格还是会被橡胶木的供应问题影响,尤其是当季风季节来临的时候。


    笔者点评

    Evergreen 2017 年的全年净利如果要超过 2016 的确实会有很大的难度,也很是被动的被橡胶木短缺的问题困扰着。目前最好是昔加末的厂房继续扩大产能,并持续高赚副产品的销售数量来对冲原料上涨的问题。至于此季度的整体表现我个人还觉得是过得去的。对于持票已久的投资者来说,或许这个季度的表现也还真的是柳暗花明又一村了。





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    谢谢大家


    Monday 13 November 2017

    ORNA PAPER Quarter result review FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEP 2017

    Orna Paper Bhd (5065)
    Share price 1.61
    Market Cap: RM 121 million


    Orna paper is involved in paper packaging industry and their major business is manufacturing of corrugated board and carton and paper stationery products.





    Orna Paper share price had gone up  71% since Jan 2017.  Today, 13 November 2017, the third quarter result is out. Let's review it



    Year On year Comparison
    Single quarter
    Revenue went up 31% for the current quarter due to 1)higher sales volume, 2)higher average sales price. Net profit attributable to shareholder increased at slower pace of 7.5% due to higher raw material cost as well as high taxes incurred in this quarter. The sales volume and average selling price for corrugated cartons and boards has increased by 15.63% and 13.74% respectively compared to the corresponding quarter

    Year to date
    Revenue increased 20% while profit increased 65%. This 9 month net profit has surpassed last year full year net profit of around 7.7 million.
















    The company is currently sitting on Net Debt to Equity ratio of 34.5%.
    Besides that, inventory increased substantially in this quarter, probably the company foresee that the raw materials price could be increasing further, or they might have higher sales order coming in as the demand for paper packaging is robust now.










    Dragged down by increasing of working capital, the operating cash flow for this quarter is in negative territory, this certainly not a good sign for company if persist for a long period especially when they need to borrow more money to fund the business operation.






    As a midstream player, despite the increase of raw materials cost, Orna ability to pass through the cost to its customers is one of the core reason for such an outstanding performance. Not only that, the demand of paper packaging is indeed in an increasing trend.








    Valuation:

    Trailing 12 months PE : 9.7


    Conclusion:

    Overall this quarter result is quite satisfactory and the business will continue to grow despite the increased of raw materials price. Next quarter result should be doing well too as Malaysia e-commerce sales on 11 November 2017 is impressive.




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